Pre-disaster planning of mitigation, response and recovery decisions: case of a possible earthquake in İstanbul

Abstract

Over the past three decades, increasing natural disaster losses have raised the importance of emergency management. In this respect, an optimization model is constructed in order to analyze the probable results of an earthquake. The aim of the model is to minimize the sum of mitigation, recovery and transportation costs of relief items with limited mitigation budget and limited capacity of aid stations. The developed linear programming model is applied to a case study for the university campuses in Şişli and Beşiktaş districts of Istanbul. Thus, the linear optimization model is solved by using the real data. With the obtained results, the relationship between the relief item inventory and mitigation strategies, the mitigation choices and the expected recovery costs under different conditions are discussed. Finally, the model can be used as a decision support tool for the risk managers facing a serious earthquake threat.