Analyzing electric vehicle diffusion scenarios for Istanbul

Abstract

In this study, a dynamic simulation model for electric vehicle (EV) diffusion is constructed. The objective of this work is to investigate two main questions; what are the plausible diffusion patterns of electric vehicles for Istanbul under different scenarios developed considering both local and global socio-economic, governmental, technological factors and their interaction with each other? Secondly, what is the extent of the diffusion rate that can be expected in Istanbul after three decades? The model is validated by standard structure and behavior tests. After, various scenario and policy analysis are performed. The results show that fleet market share of battery electric vehicle (BEV) and hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) would likely reach around 19.76% and 20.77% respectively by 2042 in Istanbul. In addition, CO2 reduction in the transportation sector would only reach around 17.32% in 2042. Moreover, both gasoline and electricity cost influence EV diffusion. However, their impact on EV diffusion is mainly related with a mobility cost gap between gasoline and electricity. Furthermore, technological improvement would lead BEV sales to increase. However, if battery technology cannot keep pace with or exceed CV technology, technological improvements would less likely create a significant raise in the BEV sales. Contrary to expectations, even if no technological improvements were progressed, BEVs would still likely succeed to penetrate around 10% of the market with its current technology within the 30 years. Moreover, a sufficient number of recharging points may lead to faster diffusion of BEV‟s as well, causing higher fleet market share overall. Both marketing activities and word of mouth have a remarkable impact on rapid EV diffusion. Besides, increase in repurchasing rate may cause faster EV penetration. Subsidies would have a small impact on EV sales. Finally, applying the 3% private consumption tax (PCT) instead of the 37% PCT for HEV may increase HEV sales but does not show considerable change on HEV sales.