Transport sector energy use, electric vehicle deployment and CO2 emissions in Turkey :|an evaluation using the Bogazici University energy modeling system

Abstract

Considering the data of CO2 emissions of Turkey in 2017 by sectors, the main contributor is the energy sector with 41%, followed by the transport sector with 23% according to Turkey’s latest National Inventory Submission. CO2 emissions from fuel combustion are driven by road transportation and power generation while emissions from oil products, mainly used in the transport sector, account for 27%. Road transportation that contains 90% of all passenger transport and 89% of all freight dominates Turkey’s transport system and is responsible for 93% of CO2 emissions from the transport sector. Based upon this interdependent relationship of power generation, transportation and CO2 emissions, this study evaluates the impact of electric vehicle deployment on power generation and CO2 emissions in Turkey using Boğaziçi University Energy Modeling System (BUEMS) which is designed as a linear optimization model to reflect Turkish energy system. In this study, BUEMS which estimates CO2 emissions, energy technologies and primary energy supply levels for each 5-year time period between 2012 and 2052 has been calibrated according to the latest Turkish energy and transport data. All the complex relationships between producing, transforming, transmitting and/or supplying energy sources according to the useful demand characteristics are represented with great technological detail. The objective is the minimization of the total energy system cost. The levels and prices of the various energy sources are in equilibrium in each period, which guarantees that the net total cost of supplying all levels of energy services are minimized, while satisfying a number of constraints, such as, system constraints regarding energy sources, demands, capacities, activities, electricity generations, emissions and other optional constraints such as user imposed policy constraints, including emissions restrictions, bounds on activities, capacities, and energy source supply levels. For the base scenario definition, the current energy system of Turkey is represented with its business-as-usual assumptions, together with a modest prediction for electric vehicles. Based on the base scenario, various electric vehicle diffusion and policy scenarios have been carried out and the results of these alternative scenarios are compared with the base scenario.