Investigation of the transit maritime traffic in the strait of Istanbul through simulation modeling and scenario analysis

Abstract

The Turkish Straits, the unique water route between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean is of great strategic and economic importance. The increase in the number of transit vessels in recent years and serious quantities of dangerous cargo passing very close to highly populated areas as well as through a very dense local traffic mostly between the European and Asian shores of this narrow waterway are sources of deep concern for Turkey. This study aims to develop an integrated simulation model for the transit maritime traffic in the Strait of Istanbul and to perform scenario analysis to investigate the effects of type and frequency of transit vessels, as well as various natural factors, resources and decision / policy rules, on the system. In this context, the performance measures in concern are the number and types of vessels passed, transit times and waiting times of vessels, number of vessels in the queues, vessel densities throughout the Strait, pilot and tugboat utilizations. Scenario analyses have been designed to investigate the effects of vessel arrival rates, vessel profiles, pilot and tugboat availabilities, current conditions, pursuit distances between vessels, visibility and seasonal conditions on these performance measures. In this regard, the Strait traffic simulation model is equipped with comprehensive arrival process model of transit vessels, a stochastic visibility and a stochastic current model. Current Strait of Istanbul Traffic Rules and Regulations, the available pilotage and tugboat services, traffic lanes and overtaking conditions are all imposed to the model as well. Besides, animation of the model is developed to better describe the structure and to deploy the model as a real time decision support and training tool. Results of the study reveal interesting relationships among factors and responses whereas they point out the importance of external factors of vessel arrivals and vessel profiles and control tools such as pilotage and tugboat supply and pursuit distance in the Strait as well.