Energy economy and environment integrated large scale modeling and analysis of the Turkish energy system

Abstract

Need for energy is constantly increasing as globalization spreads, and is becoming a very important input for economic development. As energy resources are scarce, safe and sustainable supply of energy, efficient use, reduction of greenhouse gasses and environmental protection, price changes and instabilities in fuel prices, transformation from usage of fossil fuels to usage of renewable energy sources, etc. have become strategically important for countries. Upon realizing the severity of this situation, nations try to conduct policies concerning accurate management of energy. In this context, decisions on energy generation, transmission and consumption are of primary importance. For this very reason, policy makers are in urgent need of an appropriate modeling methodology that provides accurate projections on future forecasts. The purpose of this thesis study is to propose a model that has a bottom-up structure with large-scale energy-economy-environment modeling framework focusing on the mechanisms and relationships that represent Turkish energy sector realistically. In this regard, Boğaziçi University Energy Modeling System (BUEMS) model is established and validated by comparing the results of scenarios with The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) modeling framework in accordance with the Turkish national energy sector data. The primary objective is obtaining meaningful and trustworthy results by modeling the energy sector with the highest factualness. An extensive range of emission mitigation scenario analysis is evaluated to provide feedback of testing energy policy choices (emission tax, emission bound, investment on fuel supply infrastructure) and analytical insights on the system behavior of Turkish energy system for the period out to 2052.