The impact of Syrian immigrants on the wages of unskilled natives in Turkey

Abstract

The armed conflict of the Syrian Civil War that has led many people emigrate from Syria to other countries started in March 2011. As one of the neighbours of Syria, Turkey has received more Syrian immigrants than any other country. As of January 2018, almost 3.5 million of these immigrants settled in Turkey. In the literature, the impact of immigrants on the economic conditions of the host country is frequently studied. Focus is usually given to the labour market, since economic performance and well-being are highly related with labour market conditions. In this study, I estimate the impact of immigrants on unskilled labour in Turkey, assuming Syrians enter the labour market through informal sector. As the informal sector, e.g., agriculture, is the most flexible labour market, the substitution between Syrians and natives should occur easily. Due to an increase in labour supply, therefore, wages are likely to adjust quickly. Unlike other studies, this study contributes to the literature by incorporating NUTS-3 level data with a repeated cross-sections methodology. Moreover, I have analyzed a particular sector to see the impact of immigrants on the economy overall. Using a repeated cross-sections fixed effects estimation, I find that if the population of aprovinceisdoubledduetoimmigration, itcausesa25 % and23 % decreaseinmean daily wages on average for males and females respectively.