Empirical and simulation based analysis of detailing activities of a pharmaceutical company in Turkey

Abstract

In this thesis, the impact of detailing activities on prescription behaviour of physicians and their carryover effects are studied using the geographic location based sales and detailing activity data of five products from a leading pharmaceutical company in Turkey. First, the relationship of sales to detailing activities and to activities made in different customer segments are analyzed using a linear regression model. It has been found that a significant relationship exists between total detailing activities and sales for four out of five products. As to the activities made in different customer segments, significant results are observed for only one product. Secondly, the outcomes of the regression are used to develop an agent based model to predict the impact and the carryover effect of detailing activities on different customer segments. The outcomes of the simulation model, when run with the best fitted impact and carryover ratios for the selected regions, reveal 10-15% deviation amongst the actual monthly values and the predicted values.