Abstract:
In this thesis, ecological niche modelling is used to analyze factors, which affect the current distributions of two morphologically similar, but genetically distinct species; Miniopterus schreibersii schreibersii and M. s. pallidus in Asia Minor and Thrace. In addition, projections are done for the past and future climatic conditions. The current predictions intend to help to determine variables responsible for the allopatry of M. s. schreibersii and M. s. pallidus, the projections to the past (the Last Glacial Maximum) aim to provide hints regarding phylogeography of these taxa, and projections to the future intend to assess their vulnerability under the global climate change conditions. The results suggest that M. s. pallidus, in comparison to M. s. schreibersii, is capable of utilizing a much wider range of climatic conditions. The past projections support earlier suggestions that these species survived the Last Glacial Maximum in the distinct glacial refugia; M. s. schreibersii in Thrace and southern Anatolia, and M. s. pallidus on the southern coast of the Caspian Sea. Under the climate warming scenarios, distribution of M. s. schreibersii is rapidly shrinking, while distribution of M. s. pallidus is expanding, replacing the former. As it is not possible to evaluate models’ discrimination capacity for other than current conditions, species-specific properties and models’ transferability are assessed by projections to already known distributions. Miniopterus s. schreibersii distribution is compared with known distributions in Europe. Miniopterus s. pallidus distribution in the Last Glacial Maximum is compared with literature. Typically, candidate models, which are used in the projections to future climatic conditions, are selected according to their high AUC values. Projections for M. s. schreibersii, however, imply that higher AUC values may not always be a correct indicator for successful projections. Therefore, the future (and the past) projections outcomes should always be treated with extreme caution.
