Evolution of earthquake hazards in İzmir response to M4+ earthquakes

Abstract

In this study, we investigated the evolution of earthquake hazards in İzmir (Turkey), the city accommodating the third highest population in Turkey in response to M4+ size earthquakes analyzing Coulomb stress change on all potential receiver faults in the target region. The city is located in western Turkey, which falls under Aegean tectonics, which leads to very high earthquake activity in the region. Fault segments with increasing Coulomb stress host high earthquake activity verifying that M4+ earthquakes prepone the generation processes of some earthquakes. In contrast, fault segments with decreasing Coulomb stress host earthquake silence verifying that M4+ earthquakes postpone the generation processes of some earthquakes. Hence, M4+ earthquakes played a critical role in the occurrence of the 2021 Samos Earthquake (M 6.92) as they increased the Coulomb stress above 0.1 bars along its rupture plane. To sum up, our results show that Coulomb stress change generated by M4+ earthquakes plays a critical role in earthquake activity in the vicinity of İzmir, Turkey.